Tuesday, July 29, 2014

the bets

Let's see if I remember these bets, I tend to lose focus and forget.

Inspired by DeLong, I'm betting - without them knowing - that Lambert and Shlaes are wrong.

She retweets
5-Year TIPS spreads have been anticipating increasing inflation since the end of last year.
Look at 5 year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security, Constant Maturity

and she links to U.S. TIPS Sale Yields Least in a Year on Inflation Bets
"The U.S. sold $13 billion in 10-year TIPS at the last auction of the securities, on May 22, drawing a yield of 0.339 percent."
$13 billion doesn't sound like that much. Maybe it is for one month.

Let's so how that goes.

Also Edward Lambert at Angry Bear is predicting a resession by the end of the year because profits are supposedly topping off. Let's revisit that and see how that goes.

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